Gustavo Petro, 100 days of “change” in Colombia?

An assessment of the good, the fair and the bad of Gustavo Petro’s broad proposal for change in Colombia.

Colombia’s first left-wing government led by Gustavo Petro came to power under a banner of change. The mission was announced as extensive, ambitious and dizzying. Since its independence, this country has enjoyed one of the longest democratic traditions in the region, paradoxically accompanied by various conflicts and wars. Today, after 100 days of the Historic Pact government, it is necessary to take stock of the good, the fair and the bad in this broad proposal for change.

Both in the campaign and in government, Gustavo Petro’s proposals have dealt with almost all sectors, proposing reforms to politics, health, peace, justice. Similarly, changes in foreign policy, agronomy, the environment and mining. These quests for transformation promote a large, more welfarist state. Undoubtedly, it aims to resolve immediate social problems based on the reform that the government has promoted in the legislature.

Total peace, a dizzying agenda

All of these banners are framed by the statement of total peace, which is translated into the proposed development plan under the concept of human security. This approach, which proposes that peace should be multi-sectoral, broadens it and at the same time makes it so ambitious that it is unattainable. However, it is good to set beacons to guide the course without ignoring the fact that it is a permanent, constant task, and that reaching the shore is infinite. In other words, there will always be something to do in terms of security. All efforts fall short in the face of a total peace that becomes impossible.

Total peace implies, in practical terms, that peace does not depend only on military and territorial control, but also on providing better opportunities for people. In other words, it emphasises not only defence, but also people’s capacity for development. This includes greater attention to education, health, local and community development, better use of natural resources and the prevention of risks associated with them, social security, economic security and better democracy (political security).

So far, with only one hundred days to evaluate, it can be affirmed that Gustavo Petro’s administration has made progress in the first four sectors. It remains indebted in terms of economic security and the exercise of a better democracy, with better quality, inclusion and parity. Finally, social security and its possible transformations cannot yet be evaluated at this point, because the reform has not even been presented.

The following is an analysis of a number of points from different policy sectors.

Positive aspects

• New grammar of power: the fact that Francia Márquez, Leonor Zalabata Torres, Patricia Tobón and Giovanni Yule are in power demonstrates the possibility of diverse and emerging faces wanting and being able to aspire to these positions.
• The increase in the Colombian education and agricultural budgets, as well as the cancellation of Icetex debts.
• Improvement of bilateral relations with Venezuela, reopening of the border.
• A surcharge on the financial sector for the development of infrastructure corresponding to tertiary land transport routes.
• Establishment of the International Commission against Impunity.
• The government has shown determined concern for the regions. It has been present in the places with the greatest social problems and has sought to include special chapters in the development plan for these regions, giving priority to the Colombian Pacific.
• Working together with his government benches for the approval of the Total Peace Law.
• Resumption of negotiations with the ELN and other illegal groups.

The regular aspects

• It maintains democratic governance with traditional parties that represent the opposite of the change demanded by citizens. Additionally, in dialogue processes with communities in the territory, divergent voices have been excluded. These processes are more akin to football supporters’ clubs than to truly inclusive processes of building with other people.
• It changes the foreign policy tradition of not negotiating with dictators, along the lines of an ironclad respect for democracy.

Negative aspects

• Lack of assertive macroeconomic policy management to contain external shocks. Economic crisis, hyperinflation, global recession and, consequently, the rise of the dollar as the main currency. Lack of assertive management between the government and the markets, which Gustavo Petro even accused of generating financial panic. There are also contradictory messages to public opinion between ministers, and this undoubtedly has an impact on speculative markets.
  Lack of coordination between ministries and their visible heads.
• The promise of parity in senior public sector positions has been broken. The 100 most important positions in the country have not yet been appointed.

Promises of Gustavo Petro

The first challenge for the government after the tax reform is to translate this resource management into government works and social policies that lead to the well-being of Colombians. This necessarily involves those who design the country’s fiscal policy. It is not only necessary to focus on welfare, but also to consolidate a welfare model that will make it possible to meet the urgent needs and invest in the country’s economic future.

On the other hand, if Colombia does not comply with the fiscal rules necessary for macroeconomic stability, as well as to provide security for investors, it is difficult for it to return to the path of economic growth.

The second challenge lies in building and maintaining a stable government team, which has not yet been appointed and has been weak in terms of parity and inclusiveness. This team needs to be more in sync across sectors, both in the cabinet and with the communications teams and among the government bench. The maintenance and appointment of strategic positions at different points in his government will show the sustainability of the change project.

Health reform cannot be assessed to date in terms of its scope and implications, but it will determine the promise of a new social security.

Approval and rejection

In recent days, two pollsters (Invamer and CNC) evaluated citizen approval of this government. The first (Invamer, 49.7 %) is less optimistic than the second (CNC, 62 %), and shows a downward trend of 16 % since the beginning of the government. While the second shows a stable approval rating.

In a subsequent analysis, it can be observed that the worst scenario (Invamer survey) does not show a significant variation (-0.5 %) in the percentage of people who voted for Petro, which shows that he maintains approval in sectors that have not traditionally supported him. And that, in case of having high predictability and representativeness indexes, he would still enjoy more approval than rejection. It also shows a contrast with his predecessor, Iván Duque, in the same 100 days (27 %).

For the future of the administration, health reform could affect the well being or good living promise of this change project.

 

By Nicolás Díaz-Cruz, Political Scientist. MPA-Public Affairs (Sciences Po, Paris). Consultant. Project manager. Executive Director of Extituto de Política Abierta (Colombia). Member of the Latin American Network for Political Innovation.

 

This article was previously published in Animal Político on 15 November 2022.